Northern lights forecast for Iceland tonight

How to read the aurora forecast

To see the northern lights you need three things at once: geomagnetic activity, clear skies and darkness. The forecast above sums up all three for tonight and the next few nights, using data from the Icelandic Met Office (Veðurstofa Íslands).

The Kp index: how much activity to expect

The Met Office gives its aurora forecast on the Kp scale. It runs from 0 to 9 and measures how much the Earth's magnetic field is disturbed when the solar wind arrives. The value shown is the forecast for midnight.

• Kp 0–1: minimal activity. With clear skies you may still see a faint arc to the north.
• Kp 2–3: enough in Iceland. In the Met Office's own words, a 2 can already be beautiful and a 3 dazzling.
• Kp 4–5: an active night. The lights move fast and can fill the whole sky.
• Kp 6 or more: a geomagnetic storm. These are rare: the index sits between 0 and 4 about 90 % of the time, and between 7 and 9 only 1 % of it.

Iceland lies right under the auroral oval, so you don't need a high Kp here. What really decides the night is the cloud.

Cloud cover: the deciding factor

The aurora forms more than 100 km up, above any cloud. If the sky is overcast, the Kp doesn't matter: you won't see it. As a rule of thumb:

• Under 30 %: good conditions.
• 30 to 80 %: there will be gaps; you'll need to find them and be patient.
• 80 % or more: very difficult from that spot. Check the regional table: the north and east often have different weather from the southwest.

For more detail, the Met Office publishes hourly cloud cover maps that separate low, middle and high cloud. Thin high cloud sometimes lets the aurora through; low cloud never does.

Darkness and the moon

The aurora season in Iceland runs from late August to mid-April; in summer it never gets dark. The forecast shows when it is fully dark in Reykjavík. A full moon brightens the sky and washes out faint displays, although a strong aurora still shows. Nights with a new or thin moon are the best.

The best time to see the northern lights

The aurora can appear as soon as it gets dark, but activity tends to peak around midnight, roughly between 22:00 and 01:00. It comes in bursts: an hour of nothing can be followed by a few minutes, or half an hour, of bright lights. Plan on at least a couple of hours outside, and dress as if you'll be standing still below freezing.

The Kp forecast is reliable for a day or two, because the solar wind takes one to three days to reach us from the Sun. Beyond that, treat it as a trend. Cloud changes even faster, so the sensible thing is to check the forecast on the afternoon itself.

Where to see the northern lights near Reykjavík

When activity is high, the aurora is visible from central Reykjavík, but street lights take a lot away. Driving a few kilometres out of town makes a clear difference.

• Grótta lighthouse (Seltjarnarnes): about 10 minutes' drive from the centre, by the sea and away from the street lights. The easiest option without leaving the city.
• Lake Kleifarvatn (Reykjanes peninsula): about 40 minutes away, with no towns around and a very dark sky.
• Þingvellir National Park: about 45 minutes to the northeast. One of the darkest places near the capital, and its cloud cover is sometimes different from Reykjavík's.
• The rest of the Reykjanes peninsula: open coastline and little artificial light, less than an hour away.

If you go on your own, winter roads can be icy or closed: check umferdin.is and safetravel.is before you set off, and never stop on the hard shoulder to look at the sky.

Tips for photographing the aurora

• Tripod, manual focus at infinity and the widest aperture you have (f/2.8 or wider).
• ISO 1600 to 3200 and exposures of 5 to 15 seconds; shorter if the aurora is moving fast.
• On a phone, use night mode and rest it on something steady.
• The camera picks up more than your eyes do: a faint aurora can look like a pale cloud to the naked eye and green in the photo.

On your own or on a tour?

Going on your own is cheaper if you already have a car, but it means driving at night in winter and reading the cloud maps yourself. On a tour, the guide does that work: they follow the same forecast you see here and drive to where the skies are clear. Departures from Reykjavík usually start between 19:00 and 22:00 and last several hours. When the forecast is poor, many tours are cancelled or let you rebook for another night; check each tour's conditions before booking.

See northern lights tours

Frequently asked questions

What Kp do you need to see the northern lights in Iceland?

A Kp of 2 is already enough if the sky is clear and it is fully dark. From 3 upwards the chances are good across the whole country.

Can you see the northern lights from Reykjavík?

Yes, especially with a Kp of 3 or more. They are still much better outside the city, away from the lights.

When is the best time of year?

From September to March, when the nights are long. The months around the equinoxes, September and March, tend to have a little more geomagnetic activity.

How far ahead is the forecast reliable?

The activity forecast, for a day or two; cloud cover, for a few hours or the next day at most. That is why this page updates every hour.